Which Cabinet member leaves Trump's team next by 31 Dec?

As of 11 October 2026, 20:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is None before 2027 at a 55% chance, ahead of Pete Hegseth at 8% and Susie Wiles at 7%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-12-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

21

Chances as of

2026-10-11 20:32 UTC

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual’s resignation or removal before this market’s end date will immediately resolve this market according to that individual, regardless of when the resignation or removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.