Prediction
Answer Options
As of 30 October 2026, 09:42 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 47% chance and No at 53%.
This prediction covers the final order of the 2026 F1 drivers' standings once the last scheduled race of the season is done. The prediction settles once the official results of that final race are known. YES if Lewis Hamilton finishes 4th in the final driver standings of the season. Anything else is NO. If a driver becomes mathematically unable to finish 4th, that driver's prediction settles NO at that point. If drivers finish level on points, the tiebreak F1 uses to set final positions decides who is fourth. If the season is permanently cancelled, or is not completed by 23:59 ET on 28 Feb 2027, the prediction settles NO. Formula 1's official results and standings decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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