Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 20:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if SpaceXAI owns the highest-ranked eligible model in the Agent Arena leaderboard at arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, with the table filtered to Models, when it is checked on 31 October 2026 at 12:00 PM ET; otherwise NO. Models are ordered by the number in the Rank column. Every model marked AutoEval at the check time is left out, even when it shows a rank or a score. For equal ranks, the model shown higher in the table ranks first; if that is still tied, company names are ranked in alphabetical order, so Google would come ahead of SpaceXAI. If the top model belongs to another company, the answer is NO. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the check, the first check after it returns is used, with no waiting limit; if it becomes permanently unavailable, another reliable published record of the same Agent Arena model ranking at the check time decides. The Agent Arena leaderboard decides first.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
