Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 25% chance and No at 75%.
YES if the official result of the U.S. House election in Florida's 20th congressional district, expected on 3 November 2026, is a win by the Democratic nominee by at least 45 but less than 50 percentage points; otherwise NO. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. The Democratic and Republican nominees stand for their parties; independent candidates represent neither, and if a party's nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement takes that place. A margin lying exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If an independent or other unlisted candidate finishes first, every answer is NO. If two candidates tie for the most votes: a tie between the Democratic and Republican nominees goes to the lowest band of the nominee whose surname on the ballot comes first alphabetically (a Democratic win by less than 20 points, or a Republican win); a tie between one of them and an unlisted candidate goes to that nominee's lowest band; a tie among unlisted candidates makes every answer NO. The official count is used once it is final; a recount started before certification keeps the prediction open until it ends and the count is official. If the outcome is not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, every answer is NO. Florida's official certified results decide, with overwhelming agreement among credible reports as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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