Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Illinois's 14th congressional district (IL-14), held on 3 November 2026, and wins by 30 to 35 points; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the leading and second-place candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the Democratic nominee, including a replacement named before election day; independents never count as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 5 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The certified official result counts, and a recount started before certification keeps the prediction open until it is done. If the result is not definite by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The Illinois state authority that certifies the election is the main evidence, and overwhelming agreement among reputable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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