Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 21:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if the Labour Party (LP) wins more seats in Nigeria's Senate than any other party, listed or not, at the next National Assembly vote, set for 16 January 2027; if that vote is officially moved, the new date counts. If a different party ends up with the most seats, NO. A party is credited only with seats won by candidates who ran under its own name; seats are never pooled because of endorsements, alliances, coalitions or other cooperation. Seat totals are those INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) declares when voting concludes, counting supplementary or rerun polls held to complete constituencies first declared inconclusive. Defections, floor crossings, resignations, by-elections and any court or tribunal ruling after the declaration that annuls a result, swaps a winner or orders a new poll are all ignored. If parties share the top seat count, YES goes only to the tied party among APC, ADC, NDC, PDP, LP and NNPP whose abbreviation is first in alphabetical order. If the leading party is not definitively known by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Broad agreement among reliable news reports decides; where that is unclear, only official results from Nigerian government bodies, INEC among them, decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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