Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 5% chance and No at 95%.
This market resolves Yes if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank on or before January 1, 2027, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. Annexation means an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over West Bank territory that it was not claiming at this market’s creation. Qualifying examples include acts comparable to the 1980 Jerusalem Law or the Golan Heights Law. Actions by Israeli settlers or other non-state actors asserting administrative control over West Bank land do not count unless they are accompanied by a formal Israeli government annexation. The primary resolution source is official information from the Israeli government, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
