Will China's GDP growth be 4% to under 5% by 16 Apr 2027?

As of 12 October 2026, 20:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 96% chance and No at 4%.

Category

economy

Closes

2027-01-31 00:00 UTC

Answers

2

Chances as of

2026-10-12 20:31 UTC

This prediction uses China's year-on-year real GDP growth for the whole of 2026, measured as the percentage change published in the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) preliminary accounting release for Q4 and full-year 2026. Read the GDP row and 2026 column for year-on-year growth; if NBS changes the table, use its full-year 2026 year-on-year growth figure. YES if the figure is at least 4.0% and below 5.0%; NO otherwise. Lower bounds count and upper bounds do not. If no full-year figure is published, use NBS's Q4 2026 year-on-year figure. If neither figure is published by 16 April 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use the latest quarter for which NBS has published data. Only the initial release counts; ignore later revisions. Official NBS publications, including its English press releases, decide. All dates and times use ET.

Answer options

• Yes96%
• No4%

Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.

Reported by versus Markets