Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 10% chance and No at 90%.
YES applies if, by 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the U.S. federal government issues a waiver, licence, termination, revocation, suspension or another equivalent sanctions-relief measure that lifts, in whole or in part, penalties imposed under Section 231 of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) on Turkey, on the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), Turkey's defence procurement agency, or on covered Turkish officials. Partial and full relief both count, temporary suspensions count, and relief for the SSB as an entity or for individual officials counts; fully removing any such CAATSA sanction also counts. A step that only touches other legal restrictions, such as the National Defense Authorization Act limits on transferring F-35 jets to Turkey, does not count unless it also contains qualifying CAATSA relief. A promise, a statement of intent, talks, or word that relief may come later is not enough; a qualifying measure must actually be issued before the deadline. Once qualifying relief has been issued, a later reversal does not change YES. If nothing qualifying is issued by the deadline, the answer is NO. Official information from the U.S. federal government is the main evidence; reliable news coverage may be used to confirm it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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