Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
This market resolves Yes if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China, Taiwan, on or before January 1, 2028, 5:59 AM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. Territory under ROC administration qualifies, including any inhabited islands. Uninhabited islands do not qualify. The resolution source is official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @Reuters
