Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 20:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if “Die With A Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars is the song Spotify names as its top song in the United States for 2026, meaning the song Spotify reports as most streamed in the US across that year, normally in its next year-end Wrapped release, expected around December 2026; if Spotify names any other song, NO. Songs are matched by the name Spotify lists. If Spotify lists two or more songs as tied for the top US spot, YES only if “Die With A Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars is the tied song whose name comes first alphabetically. If Spotify has not announced its top US song for 2026 by 31 January 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official information from Spotify decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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