Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
YES if, after 8:21 PM ET on 14 September 2026 and no later than 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, Google states through its official channels (Google DeepMind included), or through someone authorised to speak for it in an official role, that it has put, is putting or will put the training of at least one of its AI models on pause, or reveals such a pause that it had not made public before, and Google itself names safety, alignment or security concerns as at least part of the reason. A pause of any length counts, including one that covers only certain models, certain training methods or certain training environments. Statements that only describe slower development, extra review steps or a pause under consideration do not count unless they say that a training pause has happened or will happen. Once a qualifying statement is made in this window, the answer is YES even if the pause is never carried out, is later changed or withdrawn, or training starts again. Otherwise NO. Official information from Google decides; reliable news reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
