Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
This market resolves YES if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by 05:59 CET on 1 January 2027. Otherwise it resolves NO. If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, this market still resolves YES. If he is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, this market resolves YES. Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody — a different prison, a court, or a hospital within the correctional system — will not suffice to resolve this market YES. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while he remains under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from government authorities or corrections departments, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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