Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 20:41 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 21% chance and No at 79%.
Resolves YES if the Tel Aviv flight information region (LLLL), which covers Israel's airspace, is shut at any moment from 15 September 2026, 5:29:39 PM New York time, through 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM New York time. Otherwise NO. A shutdown counts only when the aviation or government body in charge of that region issues a Notice to Airmen, or another official order under the rules of that jurisdiction, that broadly halts or suspends commercial flying across the whole region, and it has to cover flights passing through, landing and taking off alike. Narrow carve-outs do not spoil it - medical, humanitarian, repatriation or emergency traffic, or flights the responsible authority specifically allows - as long as commercial traffic is barred by default rather than allowed subject to conditions or limits. These do not count: shutdowns caused by weather, volcanic or seismic activity; shutdowns for holidays or religious observance; shutdowns already planned or announced before this prediction was issued; shutdowns that recur on a regular schedule and whose occurrence was settled before this prediction was issued, even if never announced; shutdowns caused by the failure or malfunction of power, navigation, communications, air traffic control or other technical systems; curbs aimed at aircraft by nationality, registry, operator or owner instead of at commercial traffic as a whole; shutdowns covering only part of the region, such as single sectors or altitude bands; ground stops, flow control, capacity cuts and other traffic-management steps that delay or squeeze traffic without shutting the region to commercial aviation; and any curb imposed by someone other than the aviation or government bodies in charge of that region, be it a warning, a zone closed to flying, a suspension of flights or anything similar. Timing follows the moment a shutdown takes effect, no matter when it was announced or the order issued; if the order names no effective time, it counts from the moment the order is issued. Decided by official information from Israel's government, among others its Ministry of Transport, its Civil Aviation Authority and its Airports Authority (official source); broad agreement among reliable reports also counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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