Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 6% chance and No at 94%.
This market resolves YES if the ISW map shows that Russia has captured the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, by the specified date at 05:59 CET/CEST the following day. If the intersection does not meet the qualifying conditions by that deadline, the market resolves NO. What qualifies as captured: The intersection qualifies if any portion of it is shaded red on the ISW map by the resolution deadline. The map is available at https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375. A map change counts only if the shading showing Russian control remains through the next complete ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must remain until the next finalized update is published, even if that occurs after the specified date. Qualifying shading: Continuous shading categorized as “Assessed Russian Control,” “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine,” or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” qualifies. What does NOT qualify: Shading categorized as “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” does not count. Negotiated settlement: If Russia establishes actual control of the intersection through a negotiated settlement, the market resolves YES even if the area is not shaded red on the ISW map. An announcement granting Russia de jure control does not qualify by itself; actual control must be established. Once the intersection has been captured under these rules, any later loss of control does not affect the outcome. Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pmtLHxQG1BLioW6AA Resolution source: The ISW Ukraine map is the primary source. If it becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap at https://deepstatemap.live/ may be used. If both sources become permanently unavailable, the outcome may be determined through a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary map glitches, display problems, or other errors are disregarded.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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