Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES if Xiaomi owns the model in first place on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; otherwise NO. The table is read with style control switched off (Adjustments: None) and the Models filter selected; any model labelled AutoEval at that moment is ignored, whatever rank or score it shows. Every eligible model in the table takes part, including models from companies not listed here. Models are ordered by the Rank column; models sharing a rank are separated by their Arena score, including the unrounded values in the data beneath the table; any remaining tie goes to the company that comes first in this alphabetical list of the companies in this prediction: Alibaba, Amazon, Anthropic, Baidu, ByteDance, DeepSeek, Google, Meituan, Meta, Microsoft, MiniMax, Mistral, Moonshot, Nvidia, OpenAI, SpaceXAI, StepFun, Tencent, Thinky, Xiaomi, Z.ai (so Google ranks ahead of SpaceXAI). If the first-placed model belongs to a company outside that list, every listed company is NO, so at most one answer can be YES. If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first check after it is back online decides; if it is permanently unavailable, every company is NO. The arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard decides.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
