Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:06 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 39% chance and No at 61%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first with a lead of at least 45 but under 50 percentage points in the 2026 US House election for Virginia's 11th congressional district, held on 3 November 2026; otherwise NO. The lead is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the first- and second-placed candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the contest. Democrat and Republican mean the nominees of those two parties; if a nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement takes that place, and independent candidates stand for neither party. A lead sitting exactly on the line between two bands counts in the higher band. If two or more candidates share the most votes, a tie between the two nominees is given to the nominee whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically, counted as a Democratic win by under 10 points or as a Republican win; a tie between one nominee and any other candidate is given to that nominee in the same way; a tie only among other candidates means NO. The final official count decides; if a recount starts before the count is final, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is final. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Official results from the Virginia State Board of Elections decide; broad agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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