Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
YES if SpaceXAI, the company behind Grok, makes a new Grok model with a version designation of 4.8 or higher available to the general public from 22 September 2026 at 14:43:59 UTC up to 31 October 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO. The model’s name or identifier must contain “Grok” and carry a version of 4.8 or above; capitalisation and any prefixes, suffixes, dates or descriptors around it make no difference. Reasoning, Fast, Heavy and similar variants with a designation of 4.8 or more qualify, and so does a model that opens a new whole-number line, for example Grok 5. Models without “Grok” in the name do not count. Nor does any model whose designation stays under 4.8, for example Grok 4.7 (out since 21 September 2026), or any snapshot, promotion or rollout of such a model. Product lines numbered on their own without the core Grok version (Grok Imagine or Grok Code Fast, for instance) do not count. Release numbers of the Grok app, the website or any other product that are not tied to a new underlying model do not count either. The model must be launched and open to the public; access through an open beta or an open rolling waitlist counts, while a closed beta or any private access does not. SpaceXAI must either announce it clearly as available to the general public, or make it publicly accessible and label it explicitly on its official website. Placeholder text, labelling mistakes, or version names on the site that do not match a model the public can actually use do not count. Official SpaceXAI information decides; reliable news coverage may be used to confirm it.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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