Prediction
Answer Options
Learn as you go
As of 12 October 2026, 11:09 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 14% chance and No at 86%.
YES if the total number of valid votes counted in the first round of Maine's 2026 general election for US Senator is at least 800,000 but fewer than 850,000. Every certified vote for a candidate or for a non-candidate option counts toward the total; blank and invalidated ballots are left out, and because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, only first-round totals are used. A total that lands exactly on the line between two ranges belongs to the higher range. Otherwise NO. If the official result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the prediction for the lowest range (fewer than 600,000 votes) settles YES and every other range settles NO. The certified result published by Maine's state election authority is the primary basis for settlement; overwhelming agreement among credible news reports may be used if needed.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
