Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:20 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 25% chance and No at 75%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Virginia's 3rd congressional district (VA-03), expected on 3 November 2026, and wins by 50 to 55 points; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the lead in percentage points of the first-placed candidate over the runner-up, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race (example: a Democratic win by 66% to 32% is a 34-point lead, which falls in the 30 to 35 point band). A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the Democratic Party's nominee, including a replacement named before election day; independents and other candidates never count as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 15 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The vote count decides once it is official; if a recount starts before then, settlement waits until the recount is finished and made official. If the result is still not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. Official results certified by Virginia's state election authority are the main evidence, with overwhelming agreement in reliable reporting as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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