Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:29 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 59% chance and No at 41%.
YES applies only if the Israel–Iran ceasefire remains in force through 31 December 2026 at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST; 3:29 PM ET). It ends if Israel or Iran initiates a qualifying action that directly impacts the other country’s terrestrial territory or internal waters: an air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, or air-launched drones) or a surface-to-surface missile strike (including one-way attack drones and cruise or ballistic missiles). Intercepts or destruction before impact, debris, surface-to-air fire, small arms, ground incursions, cyber activity, naval gunfire, artillery, mortars, rocket artillery, minor short-range loitering or FPV drones, ATGM strikes, threats, authorizations, and unexecuted announcements do not qualify. Maritime territory and airspace are excluded; disputed borders use territory claimed and de facto controlled at the prediction’s start. If reports conflict on occurrence, attribution, or timing, keep the result open until consensus or three full IRST calendar days after the first credible evidence, extending past the end date if needed; then use the totality of official Israeli/Iranian and credible reporting. Otherwise NO applies.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
