Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 7% chance and No at 93%.
On October 9, 2025, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Israel or Hamas announces the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by 05:59 CET/CEST on January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or the other has violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes". Only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that the ceasefire has ended, will qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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