Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 4% chance and No at 96%.
This market resolves Yes if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by 5:59 AM CET/CEST on the following day on December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Only formal recognition qualifies - statements or actions that acknowledge Somaliland or change its diplomatic status with the U.S. without formally recognizing it as a sovereign state do not count. The primary source is official U.S. government information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @nuur1_nuur
