Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 10-15% at a 28% chance, ahead of Republican 15-20% at 23% and Republican 20-25% at 23%.
This prediction is about the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of New York's 23rd congressional district (NY-23), expected on 3 November 2026. Each 'Republican' band is YES only if the Republican Party's nominee finishes first and the winning margin lies inside that band; 'Democrat wins' is YES if the Democratic Party's nominee finishes first, whatever the margin. The winning margin is the difference in percentage points between the winner's and the runner-up's vote shares, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of all valid votes in the race. A margin exactly on the line between two bands counts for the higher band. Independents and anyone else without the Democratic or Republican nomination never count for either party; if such a candidate finishes first outright, every option is NO. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, that party's options follow the replacement nominee. Ties for the most votes: if the Democratic and Republican nominees tie, YES goes to the lowest option of the nominee whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically ('Republican 0-5%' for the Republican nominee, 'Democrat wins' for the Democratic nominee); if one of these two nominees ties with any other candidate, that nominee's lowest option is YES; if only other candidates tie, every option is NO. The official certified vote count decides; if a recount begins before the count is official, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every option is NO. Official results from New York's state election authority, which certifies the race, decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used. At most one option is YES; all others are NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
