Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:26 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican: 15 to under 20 points at a 29% chance, ahead of Republican: 10 to under 15 points at 25% and Republican: 5 to under 10 points at 23%.
Use the certified result of the TX-22 House election scheduled for 3 November 2026. The winning answer identifies the winner and the percentage-point gap to the runner-up. For each candidate, divide valid votes received by the election’s total valid votes, then subtract the runner-up’s percentage from the winner’s. A boundary value belongs to the bracket beginning at that value; upper bounds are excluded. Democratic and Republican options follow each party’s nominee, including a replacement before polling day; independents cannot fill a party option. Named nominees also follow that replacement rule. For a lead shared by listed candidates, use the lowest bracket of the candidate with the alphabetically earliest ballot surname. A listed candidate tied with an unlisted one takes precedence; a tie solely among unlisted candidates means Other. Use surnames for ties even when options display party labels. The Texas state election authority’s certified tally is primary evidence, with overwhelming agreement across reliable reporting also acceptable. If a recount starts before certification, wait for its completion and the official count. An unresolved result at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027 means Other. Exactly one answer is YES when a listed option qualifies; every other listed option is NO. An unlisted outcome or an applicable Other fallback leaves all listed options NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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