What's the winning margin in Minnesota's 4th district?

As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic margin 45 to under 50 percentage points at a 31% chance, ahead of Democratic margin 50 to under 55 percentage points at 26% and Democratic margin 40 to under 45 percentage points at 20%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-04 04:59 UTC

Answers

10

Chances as of

2026-10-11 01:28 UTC

YES goes to the band that matches the official result of the 2026 U.S. House election in Minnesota's 4th congressional district (MN-04), expected on 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of every valid vote in the race. The Democratic bands stand for the nominee of the Democratic Party, which appears on Minnesota ballots as the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, and 'Republican candidate wins' stands for the Republican Party nominee; independent and other candidates represent neither party. If either party's named nominee is replaced before election day, the replacement nominee takes that party's place. If the Democratic nominee finishes first, the band containing the winning margin is YES, and a margin exactly on the line between two bands belongs to the higher band. If the Republican nominee finishes first, 'Republican candidate wins' is YES. If a candidate who is neither party's nominee finishes first, every listed answer is NO. If the top spot is shared because two or more candidates have exactly the same highest number of valid votes: between the Democratic and Republican nominees, the nominee whose last name on the ballot comes first alphabetically is treated as the winner, with that party's lowest band ('Democratic margin 0 to under 20 percentage points' or 'Republican candidate wins'), and this ballot surname is used even though the answers show only the party; between one party nominee and any other candidate, the party nominee is treated as the winner with that party's lowest band; between two or more candidates who are not party nominees, every listed answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before that, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every listed answer is NO. At most one listed answer is YES; all others are NO. The official results published by the Minnesota authorities that certify the election (the Secretary of State and the State Canvassing Board) decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable news reporting may also be used.