Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:18 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in New Jersey's 6th congressional district (NJ-06), scheduled for 3 November 2026, and wins by 40 points or more; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the two leading candidates, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the Democratic nominee, including a replacement named before election day; independent candidates never count as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 10 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The official count decides once it is final; a recount begun before final certification keeps the prediction open until the recount and the official count are complete. If the result is not definitive by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, NO. The certified result of New Jersey's state electoral authority is the main evidence, with an overwhelming body of independent reports as backup.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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