Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC, versus prices Chris Chaffee (R) at a 3% chance and Adrian Boafo (D) at 96%.
YES goes to the party whose candidate wins the seat for Maryland's 5th congressional district (MD-05) in the US House of Representatives at the 2026 midterm elections, held on 3 November 2026 (Eastern Time). The candidates include Chris Chaffee (Republican) and Adrian Boafo (Democrat), but only the winner's party matters, not the person. A candidate's party is the one listed on the ballot or otherwise clearly identifiable at the time all 2026 House races have been conclusively called by the sources below. A winner without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing counts for whichever of those two parties they most recently said they intend to caucus with at that time. If the winner cannot be assigned to either party this way, both answers are NO, so at most one answer can be YES. Clear agreement among reputable news outlets decides the winner; if that is unclear, only the official results reported by the US government, namely the Federal Election Commission (fec.gov), count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
