Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Graham: 0 to under 5 points at a 35% chance, ahead of Graham: 5 to under 10 points at 25% and Graham: 10 to under 15 points at 21%.
This prediction covers the US Senate election in South Carolina scheduled for 3 November 2026 (the seat in the US Congress, not the state legislature). The Graham answers stand for the Republican Party's nominee, Lindsey Graham, and Andrews wins stands for the Democratic Party's nominee, Annie Andrews; if either is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the answers follow the replacement nominee, and independent candidates count for neither answer. Each candidate's vote share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast for all candidates in this Senate race, and the margin is the absolute gap in percentage points between the shares of the first-placed and second-placed candidates. If the Republican nominee finishes first, YES goes to the Graham bracket that contains the margin; if the Democratic nominee finishes first, YES goes to Andrews wins, whatever the margin. Every other answer is NO. A margin falling exactly on the boundary between two brackets counts in the higher bracket. If first place is shared, with two or more candidates level on valid votes, the tie is settled by ballot surname: a tie between the two party nominees goes to the lowest-margin answer of the nominee whose surname comes first alphabetically (Graham: 0 to under 5 points, or Andrews wins); a tie between one party nominee and any other candidate goes to that nominee's lowest-margin answer; a tie only among other candidates makes every answer NO. The outcome uses the count only after it has become official; if a recount begins before then, the outcome waits until the recount is finished and the count is official. If an independent or any other candidate wins, or the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO, so at most one answer is YES. Official results certified by South Carolina's state election authority decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
