Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 09:19 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 3% chance and No at 97%.
YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first in the 2026 US House election in Texas's 16th congressional district (TX-16), scheduled for 3 November 2026, and wins by 45 points or more; if the Democrat wins by any other margin, or the Republican nominee or anyone else finishes first, NO. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the two highest vote shares, each share being that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. A margin landing exactly on the edge between two bands counts in the higher band, so each band runs from its lower edge up to just below its upper edge. The Democrat means the formal Democratic nominee, including a replacement named before polling day; independents never count as the Democrat. In a tie for first place, only the Democrat's lowest band (under 5 points) can be YES: that happens when the Democratic nominee ties with the Republican nominee and has the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, or ties with a candidate who is not a party nominee; every other tie is NO. The certified tally decides; a recount begun before certification delays the decision until it finishes and the count becomes official. If the result is still undetermined at 11:59 PM ET on 30 June 2027, NO. The certified count from the Texas state election authority is the main evidence; overwhelming agreement among reputable reports may also establish the result.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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