Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
This market resolves Yes if Germany’s governing CDU/CSU–SPD coalition breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, it resolves No. The coalition counts as broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A break may be shown by a formal withdrawal from the coalition, the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one coalition party resign or are dismissed, that may count as the party’s withdrawal even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue serving without representing that party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as the head of a minority government, this still resolves Yes. The break date is the date on which it is officially confirmed that the coalition has broken. Reports of negotiations, speculation, or signs of a possible break do not qualify on their own. The primary resolution source is official German government information. A consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by @news_de
