Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, versus prices Republican Party at a 4% chance and Democratic Party at 95%.
YES belongs to the party of the candidate elected to the CA-01 congressional seat in the 2026 US House midterms, scheduled for 3 November 2026. Determine affiliation only once the deciding reports have conclusively called every House contest that year. Use the ballot affiliation or another identifiable party affiliation at that point. For a winner whose ballot names neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, use their latest stated caucus intention as of that same point. Other party answers are NO. A broad agreement among reliable election reports decides the outcome. For any ambiguity, rely exclusively on the Federal Election Commission's official US government result. The election date is 3 November 2026 and time references use Eastern Time (ET).
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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