Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican margin 25-30% at a 32% chance, ahead of Republican margin 20-25% at 21% and Republican margin 30-35% at 17%.
Use the certified vote totals for the 2026 MS-03 House first-round election, expected on 3 November 2026. For the two leading candidates, divide each valid-vote total by all valid ballots and take the absolute percentage difference. The bracket containing that difference is the YES answer; a tie exactly on a boundary goes into the higher bracket. Party-labelled choices mean the nominee of that party, while an independent is not assigned to either party choice. If a named nominee is replaced before polling day, use the replacement under the same party. A first-place tie uses the lowest margin bracket tied to the alphabetically earliest ballot surname when listed candidates are involved. If a listed and an unlisted candidate share first place, use the listed candidate's lowest bracket; if every tied candidate is unlisted, choose Other. For a Republican or Democrat choice, use that candidate's ballot surname for the ordering. Use the official vote count once it is made official. If a recount starts before then, keep the prediction open until the recount is complete and the vote is official. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027, 11:59 PM ET, use Other. Primary evidence is the relevant state electoral authority's certified result, with an overwhelming agreement across credible reports as fallback.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
