Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:28 UTC, versus prices Katie Hobbs (D) at a 87% chance and Andy Biggs (R) at 11%.
This prediction is about the general election for Governor of Arizona scheduled for 3 November 2026, counting only valid votes cast in Maricopa County. Every party nominee and independent candidate is ranked by valid votes received in Maricopa County, and the candidate ranked first decides the outcome; a tie on valid votes is broken in favour of the candidate whose surname comes first alphabetically. Katie Hobbs (D) is YES if the Democratic Party's nominee comes first, and Andy Biggs (R) is YES if the Republican Party's nominee comes first; the other answer is NO. Each answer follows its party: if a named candidate is replaced as that party's nominee before election day, the answer goes with the replacement nominee. If any other candidate comes first in Maricopa County, or if the county result is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, both answers are NO, so at most one answer is YES. The result is established by agreement among reliable news reports; if those reports are unclear, only the official results from the government of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State, and from the government of Maricopa County decide.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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