Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:29 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 0-3% at a 21% chance, ahead of Republican 6-9% at 21% and Democrat 9-12% at 15%.
YES goes to the answer whose bracket contains the winning margin in the 2026 U.S. House race for Iowa's 2nd congressional district (IA-02), held on 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; a candidate's share is their valid votes divided by the total of valid votes for every candidate in that race. Each 'Democrat' answer is YES if the Democratic nominee finishes first with a margin inside that range, and each 'Republican' answer works the same way for the Republican nominee. Only the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties can stand for those answers; an independent never counts as either party. If a party replaces its nominee before election day, the replacement nominee takes over that party's answers. A margin falling exactly on the line between two brackets goes to the higher bracket. If first place is shared because two or more candidates have equal top totals: a tie between the two party nominees goes to the lowest bracket of the nominee whose ballot surname comes first in the alphabet; a tie between one party nominee and any other candidate goes to that nominee's lowest bracket ('Republican 0-3%' for the Republican, 'Democrat 0-3%' for the Democrat); a tie involving only other candidates makes every answer NO. If someone other than the two party nominees wins, every answer is NO, so at most one answer can be YES. The result is taken from the official count once it is certified; if a recount begins before certification, the outcome waits until the recount ends and the result is official. If the result is still not definitively known on 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. The official results published by the Iowa authority that certifies this election decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
