Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at a 73% chance, ahead of Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 26% and Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 2%.
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labour force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published before 05:59 CET on February 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to "Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to "Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
