Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 37% chance and No at 63%.
YES if Amna Shah wins the next full-term election for the Surrey City Centre seat in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia, for a term starting in October 2026 or later; the provincial general election for all 93 seats is scheduled for 24 October 2026. NO if any other candidate takes the seat. If the outcome is not definitively known by 31 March 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the answer is NO. Agreement among reputable election reports decides; where those reports leave any doubt, only the official result published by Elections BC (elections.bc.ca) counts.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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