Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:30 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar at a 42% chance, ahead of Yakubu Adamu at 22% and Umar Shehu Buba at 5%.
Exactly one listed candidate is YES: the candidate who wins the 2027 Bauchi State, Nigeria gubernatorial election for the term beginning in 2027. The contest is scheduled for 6 February 2027; if officially rescheduled, use the election for that term. Acting, interim, or caretaker governors do not qualify. Nigerian law requires the winner to have the highest vote total and the required geographic distribution; any runoff before the deadline remains part of the contest. If no result is definitive by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. A broad agreement among reliable reports controls, with official INEC and Nigerian government results resolving ambiguity.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
