Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:32 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican 15 to 20% at a 25% chance, ahead of Republican 20 to 25% at 24% and Republican 10 to 15% at 22%.
YES is the live bracket matching the certified margin between the top two candidates in South Carolina district SC-05’s 3 November 2026 House election. Compute each top-two valid-vote share and take the absolute percentage-point gap; an exact boundary enters the higher band. Democratic and Republican nominees represent their parties; independents are separate, and a nominee substituted before election day fills the party slot. For a top-vote tie, use the lowest band: listed versus listed uses the alphabetically earlier ballot surname, listed versus unlisted uses the listed candidate, and two or more unlisted leaders produce Other. Use the official vote count once made official; a pre-certification recount keeps the result open until completion and certification. The state certifier is primary, with overwhelming agreement among reliable reports as fallback. Deadline: 30 June 2027, 11:59 PM ET; if still unknown, use Other.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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