Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:05 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 2% chance and No at 98%.
This market resolves to “Yes” if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product on or before January 1, 2027 at 05:59 CET. Otherwise, it resolves to “No.” A qualifying product must be named “Apple Vision” and clearly function as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro, in the same way that a newer iPhone generation succeeds an earlier one. It does not need to be called “Apple Vision Pro 2” specifically. A new Apple Vision product released under a different name can still qualify if it keeps the core functions of the original Vision Pro and expands on them clearly enough that it is understood to be the next-generation successor. A release described only as an upgrade or refresh does not qualify. For example, a Vision Pro model that merely updates internal hardware, such as a chip refresh, would not count as a successor. To count as released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe. An announcement, preview, or unveiling by itself is not enough. Resolution is based primarily on official information from Apple, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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