Prediction
Answer Options
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As of 12 October 2026, 20:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 78% chance and No at 22%.
This prediction uses the change from 2025 to 2026 in Japan's consumer price index for all items less fresh food and energy (the core-core index), as shown to one decimal place in the 2026 Consumer Price Index Annual Report of the Statistics Bureau of Japan (stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi), scheduled for release on 22 January 2027. Only that core-core change counts; the headline all-items figure and other measures are ignored. YES if the reported change is between 2.0% and 2.4%. NO if it is any other value. The one-decimal figure is taken exactly as published. If the report does not come out on the scheduled date, the prediction stays open until 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2027; if the figure has still not been published by then, the lowest range (1.9% or less) is YES and every other range is NO.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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