Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:31 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 11% chance and No at 89%.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by January 1, 2027, 05:59 CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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