Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 00:27 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES applies if IMF PortWatch publishes a seven-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls (the Arrivals of Ships series) of 60 or more for any date from 10 August 2026 through 31 October 2026; otherwise NO. Daily transit calls cover tankers, container ships, dry bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off vessels and general cargo ships; vessels that PortWatch does not report are left out. The prediction settles YES as soon as PortWatch publishes a qualifying value, or NO once data for 31 October 2026 has been published without one. If no data for 31 October 2026 has appeared within 14 calendar days after that date (ET), the data published up to then decides. Revisions count if they are made before the figure for 31 October 2026 is published, but a revision can never take away a value that already qualified; revisions made after that figure is published are ignored. If published data contains an obvious error, such as a clerical mistake, the prediction may stay open through the third calendar day (ET) following the day that data first appears, so that it can be corrected. A difference between PortWatch and other data providers is not treated as an error. IMF PortWatch transit data for the Strait of Hormuz decides, both its chart and its downloadable files.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
