Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 13:00 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 1% chance and No at 99%.
YES if Microsoft owns the model in first place on the Agent Arena leaderboard at arena.ai (arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, the Agent Arena table with the Models filter) when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026; if the first-placed model belongs to any other company, listed or not, NO. Models marked AutoEval at that check are ignored, whatever rank or score they show. Models are ordered by the Rank column; models sharing a rank are ordered by their position in the table, and any remaining tie is broken by the alphabetical order of the company names offered in this group of predictions (for example Google before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard cannot be reached at the check time, the first check after it is back online decides. If it never comes back, the same ranking at the check time is taken from the best other record, in this order: data or announcements published by arena.ai, an archived copy of the leaderboard page, then reliable news coverage.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
