Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Republican margin 15% to under 20% at a 31% chance, ahead of Republican margin 25% to under 30% at 26% and Republican margin 20% to under 25% at 23%.
One live range is YES for the AL-05 2026 U.S. House election. Calculate the absolute difference between the first- and second-place candidates' percentages of all valid votes. Democratic and Republican nominees supply the party options; independents do not, and a replacement nominee keeps that party option. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range. For a top-vote tie, use the lowest range for the listed candidate whose ballot surname comes first; a listed-versus-unlisted tie uses the listed candidate, while only-unlisted ties use Other. Use the official certified result; an initiated recount keeps the prediction open until certification. If no definitive result exists by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, use Other. The responsible state electoral authority is primary, and an overwhelming body of reliable reports may also be considered.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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