Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 21:07 UTC, versus prices December 31 at a 5% chance and September 30 at <1%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and 05:59 CET/CEST on July 1, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An announcement of her resignation or removal before the market's end date will resolve it immediately to "Yes", regardless of when that resignation or removal takes effect. The resolution source will be the government of Italy, though a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
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