Prediction
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As of 12 October 2026, 11:08 UTC, versus prices Yes at a 9% chance and No at 91%.
This prediction is about Israel's Knesset election expected on 27 October 2026 and the number of Knesset seats won by Yashar. If Yashar runs as part of a joint list with one or more other parties, every seat won by that joint list counts; if Yashar merges with another party before the vote, every seat won by the merged party, or by any joint list it runs on, counts. YES if that seat count is 30 or more; otherwise NO. Only this seat count matters, nothing else. If the outcome is still not definitively known by 31 October 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the count is treated as fewer than 20 seats, so then only the under-20 answer is YES. Consistent reporting by many reliable news outlets decides; if it is unclear, only the official figures of Israel's Central Elections Committee count.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
