How big will the win be in California's 13th congressional district?

As of 11 October 2026, 01:27 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democratic lead of 25 points or more at a 38% chance, ahead of Democratic lead from 20 to under 25 points at 38% and Democratic lead from 15 to under 20 points at 38%.

Category

politics

Closes

2026-11-03 12:00 UTC

Answers

8

Chances as of

2026-10-11 01:27 UTC

YES goes to the answer whose party and margin range match the result of the U.S. House general election in California's 13th congressional district (CA-13), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the absolute gap, in percentage points, between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second; each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the race. California uses a top-two primary, so the general-election candidates are not formal party nominees: the ballot shows each one's stated party preference. Democratic answers cover any candidate shown on that ballot as preferring the Democratic Party, and Republican answers any candidate shown as preferring the Republican Party; candidates with another preference or none count for neither party. A Democratic answer is YES when a Democratic candidate finishes first and the margin falls inside its range, also when both finalists are Democrats, in which case the gap between them decides the range; a Republican answer is YES when a Republican candidate finishes first and the margin falls inside its range, also when both finalists are Republicans. A margin landing exactly on the line between two ranges goes to the higher range. If the first-place candidate is neither a Democrat nor a Republican, every answer is NO. If two or more candidates tie for first place, YES goes to the lowest range of the party of a tied Democratic or Republican candidate ("Democratic lead from 0 to under 5 points" for a Democrat, "Republican lead from 0 to under 5 points" for a Republican); if more than one Democratic or Republican candidate is part of the tie, the one whose surname as printed on the ballot comes first alphabetically is used, and if no Democrat or Republican is part of the tie, every answer is NO. The official vote count decides once it has been made official; if a recount starts before then, the prediction stays open until the recount is finished and the count is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. At most one answer can be YES. Official results certified by the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement among reliable news reports may also be used.