Prediction
Answer Options
As of 12 October 2026, 13:01 UTC, versus prices Yes at a <1% chance and No at >99%.
YES only if Microsoft is the company in second place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Overall category) when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on 30 November 2026, using the Leaderboard tab set to Labs with style control switched on (Adjustments: Style Control) and reading the Lab Rank column. Models tagged AutoEval at that moment are left out, even if they show a rank or score. If the Lab Rank column does not make second place clear or is not shown, companies are ordered by their best model in the Models view of the same leaderboard with the same setting; models on the same rank are split by Arena score, including unrounded figures in the data beneath the table, and any tie left over goes to the company whose name comes first alphabetically as listed among the answers (for example Google before SpaceXAI). If the leaderboard is down at the check time, the first successful check after it is back decides. NO if any other company holds second place, or if the leaderboard goes away for good. The arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard is the only record used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
