Prediction
Answer Options
As of 11 October 2026, 01:28 UTC, the most likely answer on versus is Democrat 65% or more at a 38% chance, ahead of Democrat 60 to 65% at 38% and Democrat 45 to 50% at 38%.
Settled by the 2026 general election for the US House of Representatives seat of California's 43rd congressional district (CA-43), scheduled for 3 November 2026. The margin is the gap in percentage points between the vote shares of the candidates who finish first and second, where each share is that candidate's valid votes divided by the total of valid votes cast in the race. Example: a 76% to 24% result is a 52-point margin. The numbers in the answers are such margins, not vote shares. If a Democratic candidate finishes first, YES is the "Democrat wins by" answer whose range contains the margin; if a Republican candidate finishes first, YES is "Republican wins by any margin". Every other answer is NO, and at most one answer can be YES. Each range includes its lower number and excludes its upper number, so a margin exactly on a boundary counts for the higher range. California sends the top two primary finishers to the November ballot whatever their party, so a Democratic or Republican answer covers any candidate on the general-election ballot who represents that party. If both finalists represent the same party, the margin between them picks that party's answer. If the winner represents neither party (for example a candidate with no party preference or from a minor party), every answer is NO. Ties for first place: the Democratic and Republican candidates are the candidates covered by the answers, each identified by the surname printed on the ballot. If covered candidates are among those tied, YES is the lowest range of the tied covered candidate whose ballot surname comes first alphabetically (the lowest Democratic range is "Democrat wins by 0 to 25 points"; a Republican takes "Republican wins by any margin"). If only other candidates are tied, every answer is NO. Settlement uses the official vote count once it has been certified. If a recount begins before certification, settlement waits until the recount is finished and the result is official. If the result is not definitively known by 30 June 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, every answer is NO. Official results certified by the California Secretary of State decide; overwhelming agreement in reliable election reporting may also be used.
Each percentage is the market’s current estimate of how likely that answer is. A contract settles at 100p if the answer is right and at 0p if it is wrong.
Reported by versus Markets
